A slew of government figures released in the past 24 hours have been dismissed as largely irrelevant given the continuing Middle East conflict.
The UK inflation rate stayed at 3% in the year to February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
But these figures were collected before the start of the US-Israel war with Iran, which is expected to speed up the pace of price rises.
Meanwhile the ONS also produced housing market data, related to January and February.
It showed house prices dropping 0.3% in the first month of the year, although still up 1.3% in the 12 months to January 2026.
And average UK monthly private rents increased by 3.5%, to £1,374, in the 12 months to February 2026; this is unchanged from January 2026.
Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter, says: “All of this data predates the sharp repricing in mortgage markets triggered by the outbreak of the war.
“Monthly momentum had already slipped, with prices falling 0.3% between December and January, suggesting the market was softening even before lenders were forced to rebase fixed rate products in response to the geopolitical shock this March.
“January’s dataset captures a period shaped by falling inflation expectations and gradually improving affordability, not the jump seen in funding costs since the start of the war, that has pushed mortgage rates higher and weighed on buyer confidence.”
Ben Thompson of the Mortgage Advice Bureau sees it this way: “In so many ways today’s numbers feel irrelevant and outdated given what’s been going on for the last few weeks.
“What we do know is the outlook for inflation becomes very gloomy with every hour of this conflict that passes without resolution or any degree of certainty.
“We also know that UK economic growth was continuing its struggle before the conflict started, and maybe that calls into question the much anticipated and covered three or four rate rises due now this year, as opposed to the two or so falls that had been expected.”
Specifically on the rental data, Jeremy Leaf – north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman – says: “We are continuing to see a shortage of stock, particularly prompted by landlords selling as tenancies end, due to worries about imminent tax and regulatory issues.
“This lack of stock and choice for tenants is supporting higher rents.
“However, over the past few weeks we have noticed some tenant resistance to paying more, bearing in mind increasing worries about the cost of living prompted by war in the Middle East.”
And Nathan Emerson, chief executive of Propertymark, comments: “Across many regions of the UK there remains a chronic imbalance between supply and demand in the private rented sector, with far too few homes available to meet tenant need.
“Affordability pressures persist, and Propertymark data shows that 17% of member agents have reported an increase in rental costs over this period.
“The operating environment for landlords continues to evolve at pace, with an expanding legislative burden and growing expectations around environmental compliance creating significant challenges.
“Renting remains most prevalent among those aged 25 to 34, a group that is increasingly facing barriers to saving for homeownership, further highlighting the long-term pressures within the sector.”
This article is taken from Landlord Today